Hosni Mubarak Facing Murder Charges

At WSJ, "Murder Trial for Mubarak: Egypt's Ex-Leader Could Face Death Penalty in Historic Case":

CAIRO — Egypt's former President Hosni Mubarak will become the first Arab head of state to face trial after being deposed by his own people, marking a pivotal moment in the revolutions that have swept across more than half a dozen nations since the start of the year.

Mr. Mubarak and his two sons, Alaa and Gamal, will face charges of "intentional murder, attempted murder of demonstrators, abuse of power to intentionally waste public funds and unlawfully profiting from public funds for them and for others," Egypt's attorney general said Tuesday.

If found guilty of murder charges, Mr. Mubarak could face the death penalty, said Nasser Amin, an Egyptian lawyer and member of the International Criminal Court.

The date for the trial hasn't been announced. But the decision to try Mr. Mubarak, who ruled Egypt for nearly 30 years, raises the stakes for uprisings in Libya, Syria and Yemen.

For the U.S., the spectacle of a trial could prove embarrassing and will likely complicate its diplomatic efforts in the region. Mr. Mubarak was for decades one of America's staunchest allies in the Arab world and a leading recipient of U.S. aid. Prosecution of an Arab leader who agreed to step down and hand over power is likely to undermine U.S. efforts to persuade other Arab leaders to give up power peacefully.

Check the Google page if WSJ's behind the paywall.

A really interesting development.

Arab Spring Fails to Improve U.S. Image

Hmm ....

Support for suicides bombings is up in Egypt, unchanged among Palestinian Muslims. See the Pew Global Attitudes Project. (Via Blazing Cat Fur, who has screencaps.)

RELATED: At IBD, "Is the Invasion of Israel Imminent?"

Egypt to Normalize Relations with Iran and Hamas

The story's at New York Times, "In Shift, Egypt Warms to Iran and Hamas, Israel’s Foes."

The headline alone was ominous, and reading the piece gives you the chills. Egypt's looking for "flexibility" they say. But the goals of Egyptian foreign policy look to put a vice grip on Israel.

And check Barry Rubin, who warned about this very thing from the get go, "U.S. Government, Media Completely Wrong on Egypt, Now Advise on Peace Process."

Panel on Egypt's 'Facebook Revolution' at Long Beach City College

I'm posting the video as promised. An outstanding event. Folks were quite pleased all around, and I'm proud of my colleagues for putting this together. My talk begins after 49 minutes:

And a write-up at LBCC's Viking newspaper, "Social Confrontation."

Facebook Revolution: The Democratization of Egypt and Changes in the Middle East

A panel discussion at my college today:

The college may upload the talk to YouTube, and if so I'll post it here.

Islamists Seek Takeover of Egyptian Revolution

I'll have lots of commentary on the Middle East over the next few days. Especially noteworthy is Victor Davis Hanson, who gave a phenomenal keynote speech on Saturday morning at the Freedom Center's Western Retreat. More on that later. Meanwhile, looks like the Los Angeles Times is playing catch-up to the New York Times on the role of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egyptian politics. See, "Islamists in Egypt seek change through politics":

Egypt has long been the touchstone of the Arab world. The protests in Cairo's Tahrir Square that ended with Mubarak retiring to his villa on the Red Sea riveted the Middle East. That drama suggests that Egypt's post-revolutionary era — its emerging blend of politics and Islam — will have tremendous influence on what evolves in coming generations across the region.

The political Islam popular in Egypt strikes more the tone of the moderate Muslim party running Turkey than the fundamentalist theocracies presiding over Saudi Arabia and Iran. Political parties based solely on religion are still illegal here, but the military council ruling the country has astounded many by permitting Islam a wider role. Analysts suggest this tolerance is calculated so that in coming months the army can hand over the nation to an elected parliament after assurances from the Brotherhood that it will not run a candidate for president.

Egypt is not the only nation where Islamic messages are whispering alongside the clamor of revolt. In Yemen, religious radicals are seeking to exploit anti-government protests against President Ali Abdullah Saleh, a U.S. ally against Al Qaeda. In Syria, conservative Sunni Muslims more antagonistic toward Israel than President Bashar Assad could fill the vacuum if his government is toppled.

The Muslim Brotherhood's calls for a relatively mainstream Islamic government appeals to its majority of educated and professional members. In Egypt's first taste of true democracy, the Brotherhood and more fundamentalist Salafist organizations, however, told followers that it was their religious duty to vote to approve a referendum on constitutional amendments that benefited Islamists by speeding up elections.

One of Egypt's leading ultraconservative sheiks, Mohamed Hussein Yacoub, influenced by Saudi Arabia's Wahhabi strain of Islam, was quoted as saying after the referendum had passed: "That's it. The country is ours."

Such sentiment shows that in a span of weeks, age-old religion, not the enthusiasm and slogans of the Facebook generation, is likely to be a crucial factor in choosing a new Egyptian government. This swift change has surprised even the Brotherhood, which avoided references to Islam during an uprising that was not inspired by religion.

More at the link above.

And at the New York Times previously, "Islamist Group Is Rising Force in a New Egypt." And at Director Blue, "The Rise of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, Right on Cue."

Dr. Barry Rubin, Lecture, Children of Jewish Holocaust Survivors, Los Angeles March 10, 2010

Sometime later I'll probably post to NewsReal Blog a summary of Dr. Rubin's lecture last night in Los Angeles.

Meanwhile, Dr. Rubin spoke of "revolutionary Islamism" as the most important current challenge to U.S. national security, far outstripping the importance of al Qaeda in policy planning. More on that at Rubin Reports, from December, "Poll Reveals Frightening Popularity of Revolutionary Islamism."

Also, from yesterday at Rubin Reports, "Why Does the Media Report the Opposite of What's True in the Middle East?" That's a nice synopsis of a good bulk of Dr. Rubin's talk.

More later.

Eyes Wide Shut: Unbundling the Middle East — Lecture by Dr. Barry Rubin

Tonight, at the Luxe Hotel on Sunset Boulevard, Los Angeles.

Full details here.

Hope to see you there!

Stephen Walt, Harvard's Israel-Bashing Political Scientist, Implicated in Libyan Influence-Peddling Scandal

While many supporters of Israel are well acquainted with Stephen Walt, who co-authored the wildly controversial attack on the Jewish state in "The Israel Lobby," my familiarity with the Harvard political scientist goes back to the 1990s. Walt's theories on realism and the balance of threat in strategic studies formed a basis for my dissertation work. I had no idea that Walt was a far-left wing crackpot until the controversy over "The Israel Lobby" burst out in 2006. Even then I looked at it mostly as a matter of scholarly differences within political science. But since Walt became a blogger at Foreign Policy a couple of years back I've really gotten a handle on his hatred of the Jewish state. I went back and read The Israel Lobby in book-length, and I assigned the essay from the London Review in my World Politics classes. So it's pretty fascinating that Professor Walt is deeply implicated in the Libyan lobbying controversy that's been in the news this last couple of weeks. David Bernstein writes on this at Volokh Conspiracy, "Stephen Walt on Libya." And in the comments there especially, from Gary Rosen:

Walt is just one more in a long line of Western hypocrites who make[s] a living demonizing Israel while winking at her enemies which are mostly bloody human rights hellholes. He and his ilk have been hugely responsible for enabling the repression that infects the region.

Walt lied, people died.

So true, although Walt's precise location within the Libyan lobby is sketchy. He took a recent junket to Libya at the invitation of the Gaddafi dictatorship "to give a lecture to its Economic Development Board ..." The nature of the financing or compensation is unknown, but given that a number of other well-connected academic have previously traveled in these footsteps, it's obvious that Libyan lobbying efforts in the U.S. are paying off. And there's a detailed analysis at Elder of Zion as well, "Stephen Walt and Gaddafi's Libya." Following the links there takes us to a killer piece from Martin Peretz at The New Republic, "The Qaddafi family didn’t lack for Western allies." Folks should just click the link and RTWT. Peretz provides a beautiful background to some rather ignominious writing Walt's done recently on his Foreign Policy blog. Walt predicted that the Tunisian revolt wouldn't spread to the rest of the Middle East. Big mistake, obviously, and Walt offered a sort of apologia sometime later, at "What I got wrong about the Arab revolutions and why I'm not losing sleep over it." Peretz makes mincemeat of it all:

Smart man, this Walt! But spread, the revolution did, to Egypt even before it went elsewhere, which now makes it almost everywhere in the Arab world. Barely a month later, Walt had to admit in Foreign Policy, the journal that routinely carries his enormous mistakes in fact and in judgement, “What I got wrong about the Arab revolutions and why I’m not losing sleep over it.” But his was not just an evaluative error. It was a basic misunderstanding of Egyptian realities: “I underestimated the degree of internal resentment” in Egypt, which is the basic fact about Egypt, isn’t it? This is like a doctor saying, “I thought it was a common cold. I’m sorry; it turned out to be pneumonia.” The physician, if a person of conscience, however, did lose some sleep over his bungle, as Walt is proud to tell us he did not. Apparently, Arab life is cheap not only to the collapsing regimes but also to this Kennedy School professor. One thing is for sure, and it is that there’s no wisdom in taking his classes.

No, no wisdom there at all.

RELATED: "Libyan Opposition Leaders Slam U.S. Business Lobby's Deals With Gaddafi."

Regime Change Libya?

GrEaT sAtAn"S gIrLfRiEnD gets the neocon-crazy photo-credit, at "Libyavention."

But see Wall Street Journal, "U.S. Wavers on 'Regime Change'"

WASHINGTON — After weeks of internal debate on how to respond to uprisings in the Arab world, the Obama administration is settling on a Middle East strategy: help keep longtime allies who are willing to reform in power, even if that means the full democratic demands of their newly emboldened citizens might have to wait.

Instead of pushing for immediate regime change—as it did to varying degrees in Egypt and now Libya—the U.S. is urging protesters from Bahrain to Morocco to work with existing rulers toward what some officials and diplomats are now calling "regime alteration."

The approach has emerged amid furious lobbying of the administration by Arab governments, who were alarmed that President Barack Obama had abandoned Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and worried that, if the U.S. did the same to the beleaguered king of Bahrain, a chain of revolts could sweep them from power, too, and further upend the region's stability.

The strategy also comes in the face of domestic U.S. criticism that the administration sent mixed messages at first in Egypt, tentatively backing Mr. Mubarak before deciding to throw its full support behind the protesters demanding his ouster. Likewise in Bahrain, the U.S. decision to throw a lifeline to the ruling family came after sharp criticism of its handling of protests there. On Friday, the kingdom's opposition mounted one of its largest rallies, underlining the challenge the administration faces selling a strategy of more gradual change to the population.

Administration officials say they have been consistent throughout, urging rulers to avoid violence and make democratic reforms that address the demands of their populations. Still, a senior administration official acknowledged the past month has been a learning process for policy makers. "What we have said throughout this is that there is a need for political, economic and social reform, but the particular approach will be country by country," the official said.

Right.

A learning process. Frankly, White House foreign policy is FUBAR, as Niall Ferguson noted a couple of weeks ago at Newsweek. A U.S. carrier group off the Egyptian coast might have sent a signal for Mubarak to step down a lot sooner than he did, and a Marine landing at Suez might have bolstered the opposition, and perhaps crushed forces loyal to the Muslim Brotherhood. Of course, anything along those lines could have led to a long-term U.S. occupation and an intense outcry around the Arab world. What's interesting is that despite all of these dangers, folks keep raising the prospects of U.S. military action in the region. See Micah Zenko, at Foreign Policy, "No-Go: A No-Fly Zone Over Libya Will Not Be Easy or Painless." And the roundup at New York Times, "Should the U.S. Move Against Qaddafi?"

Gaddafi Massacres Protesters: U.N. Security Council to Meet on Libya

Some sources are claiming that thousands have been killed in Libya's protests. See Monsters and Critics, "Libya death toll mounts, officials warn of chemical weapons' use." Also, the Los Angeles Times reported earlier, "United Nations chief warns of escalating toll from violent crackdown." And The Lede is running updates with reports from Tripoli, "Latest Updates on Libya’s Revolt and Mideast Protests." Here's video (note security forces dragging a wounded protester at the second clip):

See also, Business Week, "Qaddafi Vows More Deadly Attacks as Army Units Defect." Plus, at New York Times, "Following U.S. Sanctions, U.N. Security Council to Meet on Libya."

And from last night, at Los Angeles Times, "Enough with the warnings, Obama finally sanctions Libya and Kadafi," and USA Today, "Obama: Gadhafi should leave Libya 'now'."

RELATED: At Big Peace, "U.S. Concerned Libya May Use Chemical Weapons."

Yusuf al-Qaradawi Raises Danger of Islamist Regime in Egypt

I saw this the other day at New York Times, "After Long Exile, Sunni Cleric Takes Role in Egypt." Folks will want to read it all, although this passage is telling:

An intellectual inspiration to the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, Sheik Qaradawi was jailed in Egypt three times for his ties to the group and spent most of his life abroad.

Otherwise, the Times paints al-Qaradawi as largely moderate, with his extremism toward Israel and the U.S. painted as legitimate resistance. But William Jacobson's having none of it, "NY Times Whitewashes Return of Anti-Semitic Egyptian Cleric." And linked there is MEMRI's coverage of al-Qaradawi's speech Friday:

In a special mention of the Palestinian issue, Al-Qaradhawi asked the Egyptian army to open wide the Rafah crossing and to pray for the re-conquest of Jerusalem by the Muslims, so that he and the Muslims could pray in security at Al-Aqsa Mosque. This part of his sermon was cheered and applauded by the crowd.

This is exactly what the Israeli government feared, and possible developments like this were discounted by the most euphoric advocates of regime change. William has more on that, "The Yuppie Revolution In Egypt Is Over, The Islamist Revolution Has Begun" (via Memeorandum). Check the discussion there. What's especially interesting is how Google's executive Wael Ghonim, who was widely feted by the press during the protests, was shuffled to the sidelines Friday by al-Qaradawi's security.

Blazing Cat Fur has this video, which is chilling:

And events seem to be proving Barry Rubin prophetic. See, "Egypt Gets its Khomeini":

Up until now, the Egyptian revolution generally, and the Brotherhood in particular, has lacked a charismatic thinker, someone who could really mobilize the masses. Qaradawi is that man.

Friday, February 18 may be a turning point in Egyptian history. On that day Yusuf al-Qaradawi spoke to a giant cheering crowd in Tahrir Square.

He praised the army – to ward off it’s repression and to encourage it to support a transformation of the country.

He preached caution and patience, working with the army.

And he also lavished praise on the pro-Islamist chairman of the committee to write the new constitution, which may not be a good sign at all.

There is one easily missed word in his speech that is the most significant. That word is “hypocrites.” In the Islamist lexicon, hypocrites means Muslims who do not practice “true” Islam according to the radicals. To take Egypt out of the hands of “hypocrites” is to put it onto the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood – or at least similarly minded people – which, contrary to the best and the brightest policy makers, intelligence analysts, experts and journalists, is not a moderate organization.

History may show that while president Jimmy Carter may have “lost” Iran, one of his successors may have helped give away Egypt. Is that alarmist? I hope so.

Watch and see.

As so often happens, Israel will be left to pay the bill ...

Yep. Chilling.

More at the link.

RELATED: At Power Line, "Bad Vibrations From Cairo."

Robert Spencer Slams Michael Ghouse on Hannity's

I watched this the other night.



Via Atlas Shrugs and NewsReal, "Robert Spencer Frustrates Muslim Brotherhood Apologist on Hannity":

And from the comments at Atlas:

Shawna said...

Can you say SMACK DOOOOOOOOWN?? Dayum. Robert Spencer brought the heat. And stayed calm while the other dude spun out of control and got all tied up in knots. I LOVE IT!!

Reactions to Lara Logan's Sexual Assault in Egypt

If the crime is rape, expect the most obscene responses to it, from both left and right. I frankly was horrified by the story, and needed more information. But that wasn't the case for many others. Jeffrey Goldberg offers this:

Nir Rosen, the far-left journalist who joked about the sexual assault on Lara Logan, has company: Debbie Schlussel, the extreme right-wing commentator. Rosen calls for the elimination of Israel, and is a pro-Hamas Hezbollah apologist; Schlussel is a racist anti-Muslim commentator. They come from radically different places on the political spectrum, and yet they share a common inhumanity.

And from Jim Geraghty, Rosen's been fired: "NYU Accepts Rosen’s Resignation." To which Ron Kampeas responds: "What about Debbie Schlussel?"

And despite the fact of Rosen's extreme left views, Markos Moultisas tweets: "Nothing like rape to really bring out the worst in conservatism."

Anyway, my friend Dave in Boca left a comment yesterday:

I am/was a State Dept FSO trained as an Arabist and lived in four Arab countries. I’ve visited Egypt several dozen times both as a USG diplomat and afterwards as a Political Risk Analyst for Amoco, the largest foreign corporation in Egypt. What happened to Lara is absolutely inexcusable, but the photo shows her heading into the crowd without a shawl or scarf, the bare minimum a woman must wear in order not to be considered a prostitute when she walks in the streets of Cairo. TV snaps of Christiane Amanpour show her wearing a shawl/scarf when she was in a public street situation. Americans are notoriously [indeed all Brit Empire Anglos seem to be] very disrespectful or ignorant of foreign customs, just as a matter of course. Strange as it may seem to us Americans, Lara may have been perceived by the animals who attacked her as disrespecting Egyptian customs, flaunting a feminist agenda, or even taunting them by wearing inappropriate [to their eyes] apparel in a public situation. That’s the way the minds of these medieval males work.

RELATED: From Howard Kurtz, "Lara Logan's Egypt Nightmare" (via Memeorandum).

And at The Other McCain, "Paging Jill Filopovic."

CBS Reporter Lara Logan Sexually Assaulted During Egypt Protests — UPDATE! Debbie Schlussel Alleges Logan Had it Coming!!

At NYT, "CBS: Lara Logan Suffered ‘Brutal’ Attack in Cairo":

Lara Logan, the distinguished CBS News correspondent, was attacked and sexually assaulted by a mob in Cairo on Feb. 11, the day that the Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak was forced from power, the network news division said in a statement Tuesday.

After the mob surrounded her, Ms. Logan “suffered a brutal and sustained sexual assault and beating before being saved by a group of women and an estimated 20 Egyptian soldiers,” the network said.

Ms. Logan and a camera crew, along with an unknown number of security staff members, were covering the celebrations in Tahrir Square in central Cairo, where untold thousands of people had gathered. CBS said the group that enveloped Ms. Logan, “a dangerous element” within the larger crowd, numbered more than two hundred people “whipped into a frenzy.” She was separated from the crew and then attacked.

After being rescued, “she reconnected with the CBS team, returned to her hotel and returned to the United States on the first flight the next morning. She is currently in the hospital recovering,” the network said.

Also at Hot Air, "Horrendous: CBS reporter brutally sexually assaulted during Cairo protests."

*****

UPDATE: This is beneath contempt, from Debbie Schlussel:

Hey, sounds like the threats I get from American Muslims on a regular basis. Now you know what it’s like, Lara.

There will be no further comment from CBS News and Correspondent Logan and her family respectfully request privacy at this time.

I just love it when the people of the profession of “the public’s right to know” suddenly want “privacy.” Tell it to your next interview subject, Lara. Of course CBS has no further comment. Wouldn’t wanna impugn the “peacefullness” of “Religion of Peace” animals, would we? Now, if they were Christians or Jews, well, then there would be comments galore.

So sad, too bad, Lara. No one told her to go there. She knew the risks. And she should have known what Islam is all about. Now she knows. Or so we’d hope. But in the case of the media vis-a-vis Islam, that’s a hope that’s generally unanswered.

This never happened to her or any other mainstream media reporter when Mubarak was allowed to treat his country of savages in the only way they can be controlled.

Now that’s all gone. How fitting that Lara Logan was “liberated” by Muslims in Liberation Square while she was gushing over the other part of the “liberation.”

Hope you’re enjoying the revolution, Lara! Alhamdilllullah [praise allah].

Look, it's a riveting story, but in cases like this, more information is usually forthcoming. I don't read Debbie Schlussel, in any case. She's widely reviled around the conservasphere, for issues I'm only vaguely familiar with. But even in the absence of more information on exactly what took place, it's just vile to attack Lara Logan for deserving it since she chose to cover the protests for CBS. No doubt Islam has its savages, and I'm hardly the biggest bleeding heart for Muslim rabble, but to take this further as a defense of Mubarak's police state is also pretty twisted.

The Way Forward in Egypt? Defeat the Left's Red-Green Alliance and Build the Secular-Representative Alternative to Mubarak

Over the last few days, William Kristol has been among the most vocal supporters of dramatic democratic change in Egypt. And in today's essay he pushes back against Glenn Beck and others on the right who fear a Red-Green Alliance of communists and Islamists. Kristol also disagrees with Charles Krauthammer, but that seems secondary to him slamming those positing "one-world conspiracies theories" of a communist-backed caliphate across the Muslim world. The problem is that while Glenn Beck's show sometimes comes off as half-baked, the neo-communist left has indeed aligned with global jihad in a campaign against the West. In fact, today was the progressive-left's "international day of mobilization and solidarity with the Egyptian people." The neo-Stalinist ANSWER homepage has the announcement, "Emergency demonstrations: Stop all U.S. aid to Mubarak dictatorship!":

Emergency demonstrations in solidarity with the uprising of the Egyptian people are taking place across the country to demand that the U.S. government stop all aid to the Mubarak dictatorship.

As I've reported many times, the ANSWER contingents have been at the center of every left-wing mobilization over the past decade, from the Iraq war to Proposition 8 to the anti-SB 1070 campaign last year. The left's all-purpose protest machine, ANSWER is bolstered by Democrats and progressives, many of whom have ties to the Obama administration. Code Pink's Jodie Evans, for example, served as a top campaign fundraiser for Barack Obama, and now her organization is leading a fundraising operation for the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt: "Code Pink: Obama, Hamas, Muslim Brotherhood Ally Raising (Tax Exempt) Money to Overthrow Egypt Gov’t:

As we reported previously, Code Pink has been on the ground in Cairo since the beginning of the uprising. The group has made nine trips to Egypt in the past two years as part of a campaign to undermine the Egyptian government and the blockade against Hamas-controlled Gaza.

For over a week now we've had international solidarity protesters calling for an anti-American, anti-Zionist revolution in Egypt, so, folks might want to step back and go easy on the freedom euphoria just a bit (in favor of a prudent democratic realism).

In any case, Egyptian blogger Sandmonkey, a.k.a. Mahmoud Salem, offers a way forward for Egypt's democracy:

So here are my two cents: next time when you head to Tahrir, alongside blankets and food and medicine, please get some foldable tables, chairs, papers, pens, a laptop and a USB connection. Set up a bunch of tables and start registering the protesters. Get their names, ages, addresses & districts. Based on location, start organizing them into committees, and then have those committees elect leaders or representatives. Do the same in Alex, In Mansoura, in Suez, in every major Egyptian city in which the Protesters braved police suppression and came out in the thousands. Protect the Data with your life. Get encryption programs to ensure the security of the data. Use web-based tools like Google documents to input the data in, thus ensuring that even if your laptops get confiscated by State Security Goons, they won’t find anything on your harddrives. Have people outside of Egypt back-up your data daily on secure servers. Then, start building the structure.

You see, with such Proper citizen organization and segmentation, we’ll have the contact information and location of all the protesters that showed up, and that could be transformed into voting blocks in parliamentary districts: i.e. a foundation for an Egyptian Unity party. That Egyptian Unity Party will be an Umbrella party that promotes equality, democracy & accountability, without any ideological slants. It should be centrist, because we don’t want any boring Left vs. Right squabbling at that stage. Once you institute the structure, start educating the members on their rights and their obligations as citizens. Convince them to bring their friends and relatives into meeting. Establish voters’ critical mass , all under that party.

The Egyptian Unity Party, however, will not be a permanent structure, but rather a transitional entity with a clear and direct purpose: create the grassroots organization to take back the parliament and presidency in the next elections. Once sufficient votes and seats have been obtained, the party will amend the constitution to promote civil liberties, plurality, and truly democratic elections. Once that constitution is in place, the party can disband, and its elected members can start forming their own parties and collations, based on their personal beliefs and ideologies, or they can join any of the existing parties, and breathe some life into their decaying carcasses. We will end up with an actual political process and representative political parties that will actually discuss policy and have to represent those who voted for them so that they can get re-elected. Democracy in action. An old but brilliant concept. A way to ensure that no matter what, we will have a huge influence on who becomes the next Egyptian President come election day in September.

That sounds awesome. The only problem is that during revolutionary crises the most highly organized factions often seize power through divide, conquer and assassination politics. We know now that Egypt's Arab street will not be silenced. But the shape of developments is still extremely fluid, and given the left's heavy investment and mobilization in the Muslim Brotherhood, a certain caution is well warranted.

Political Transition in Egypt — Reports: Mubarak Resigns National Party; Opposition Leaders Resist Negotiations, Demand Regime Change

This just in at Los Angeles Times, "Leadership of Egypt's ruling party resigns; opposition groups resist meeting with vice president." And at New York Times, "West Backs Gradual Egyptian Transition." Also, conflicting reports on the situation earlier, at The Lede, "Ongoing Confusion about Mubarak's Role." And on Twitter, "Mubarak NOT resigning from Egypt's ruling party: AlArabiya reporter." And Enduring America:

It seems news of Mubarak's resignation as head of the ruling National Democratic Party may have been premature. Confirmation cannot be obtained by many news outlets and the state TV seems to be reviewing its earlier announcement of the move.

And check this, at NY Daily News, "Katie Couric fires incorrect tweet saying that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak stepped down." That's getting way ahead of events. Way to go CBS!

Expect updates:

Democratic Realpolitik and Egypt

From Dr. Robert Bunker, "Realism, Idealism, and U.S. Foreign Policy in the Islamic World" (via Great Satan's Girlfriend):

National self-interest now requires that we reevaluate our relationship to autocratic states, both client and otherwise, in the Islamic World and, for that matter, everywhere else. Our interests are now best served by implementing a new U.S. foreign policy approach—one that is sum-sum for our country and the burgeoning masses who live under the yoke of oppression in autocratic Islamic states. Under this new sum-sum strategy, we „play the old diplomatic game‟ and hold our friendly despots even closer while we do everything in our power, short of getting caught (and of course not engaging in crimes against humanity), to seize upon golden opportunities that are now presenting themselves in Egypt and in other Islamic lands to support Democratic revolution. We should not instigate it and we should not invade like in Iraq— Democracy should be seductive, something that is desired and not necessarily forced upon others. If the spark of Democratic revolution should come about spontaneously due to the actions of flash mobs and social network-inspired rioting or is orchestrated from within by more organized bodies, we should support it from the shadows. If a critical tipping point is approached—one in which relative superiority hangs in the balance— and if the stakes are worth it, we may even need to show our hand and threaten or buy off the targeted despot and his military forces in order to make them stand down.

RTWT.

Talk about nuance. Dr. Bunker adds this, for example, "Realism and idealism must always exist in balance, with one not sacrificed for the benefit of the other, if our nation is to remain strong." Yet he warns of obvious and inherent dangers, that some states will succumb to Islamist extremism --- like Egypt today, right? Sure, but see the Wall Street Journal, "Hamas, the Brotherhood and Egypt":

Those who believe that a democratic Egypt is doomed to fall into the Muslim Brotherhood's hands frequently cite the 2006 elections as Exhibit A. But the lesson of those elections is that Hamas should not have been allowed to participate, not that elections should never have been held.

If the Brotherhood wants to participate in elections, it should have to promise to play by democratic rules, respect religious and social pluralism, and honor Egypt's treaty commitments, especially to Israel. And because promises can be broken by those in power, Egypt needs a constitutional system of checks and balances to withstand any attempt to impose one man, one vote, once. Egypt can have a viable democratic future, provided that the democracy is for democrats.

See also Charles Krauthammer (the father of "democratic realism"), at WaPo, "Toward a soft landing in Egypt": (via Memeorandum):

The overriding objective is a period of stability during which secularists and other democratic elements of civil society can organize themselves for the coming elections and prevail. ElBaradei is a menace. Mubarak will be gone one way or the other. The key is the military. The United States should say very little in public and do everything behind the scenes to help the military midwife - and then guarantee - what is still something of a long shot: Egyptian democracy.

More at Los Angeles Times, "Egyptian throngs have a word for Mubarak: 'Leave!'," and New York Times,"Egyptian Government Figures Join Protesters."

Egypt Crisis Intensifies — Suleiman Could Take Power as Washington Plans for Mubarak Exit

At New York Times, "White House, Egypt Discuss Plan for Mubarak’s Exit":

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration is discussing with Egyptian officials a proposal for President Hosni Mubarak to resign immediately, turning over power to a transitional government headed by Vice President Omar Suleiman with the support of the Egyptian military, administration officials and Arab diplomats said Thursday.



Even though Mr. Mubarak has balked, so far, at leaving now, officials from both governments are continuing talks about a plan in which Mr. Suleiman, backed by Lt. Gen. Sami Enan, chief of the Egyptian armed forces, and Field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi, the defense minister, would immediately begin a process of constitutional reform.



The proposal also calls for the transitional government to invite members from a broad range of opposition groups, including the banned Muslim Brotherhood, to begin work to open up the country’s electoral system in an effort to bring about free and fair elections in September, the officials said.

Democracy v. Stability in Eygpt?

Just posted: "Egypt Crisis Intensifies — Suleiman Could Take Power as Washington Plans for Mubarak Exit."



And from earlier, a big shout out for National Journal's coverage of developments in the Middle East:

The "democracy v. stability" them is picked up by James Kitfield, "Obama's Risky Idealism: Reversing the 'Devil's Bargain'?"



This is a much better analysis than E.J.Dionne's (mentioned previously), and this is especially good:

In the short term, the democratic upheavals in the Middle East will almost certainly spread instability and cause furrowed brows in Washington and Tel Aviv. In the longer term, however, the strategic interests of both the United States and Israel could be well served by the death of the venerable idea that the only choice in the Middle East is between autocrats and theocrats.



“Regime change is coming to Egypt whether we like it or not, so for the Obama administration to continue to back an ill, 82-year-old dictator like Hosni Mubarak would have been both short-sighted and unwise,” said Michael Rubin, a Middle East expert and resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. The United States should instead seize a rare opportunity to embrace a mostly secular, democratic opposition that is on the march throughout the Middle East, Rubin said in an interview.

And speaking of Barry Rubin, he's got more here: "Whose Afraid of the Muslim Brotherhood? Answer: Sensible People." Rubin's responding to this at New York Times, "As Islamist Group Rises, Its Intentions Are Unclear." (And at Memeorandum.)



There are reports that the Muslim brotherhood has pledge an attack on Israel should they come to power, although perhaps the Times doesn't "get" the Internet. See, "Report: Muslim Brotherhood Wants Egyptians to ‘Prepare for War With Israel’." Maybe the Times is feigning ignorance? Wouldn't want some credible journalistic reporting to lead here: "U.S. 'held secret meeting with Muslim Brotherhood'."



RELATED: Get your kicks watching Conor Friedersdorf self-immolate: "Sophistry And Defining The Muslim Brotherhood, Ctd."



Hey, he claims to have lived in Egypt, so who knows, although the fact that he's posting at Sully's rabidly anti-Semitic blog doesn't much pump up the credibility factor.