Emerging Democratic Majority?

Michael Barone debates Ruy Teixeira on Capitol Hill, August 18th. My money's on Barone. Teixeira's been forecasting a coming Democrat majority as long as I can remember. Here's this report, shortly after the "Hope & Change" election of 2008: "New Progressive America: Twenty Years of Demographic, Geographic, and Attitudinal Changes Across the Country Herald a New Progressive Majority."

Teixeira's not quite as confident today, "Key Socialist Fears “White Working Class” Could Defeat Obama."

Freakin' commie douchenozzle.

Republican Party Splitting Over U.S. Role in Libya

I don't think Obama's Libyan war violates the War Powers Act, but unlike my fellow neocons, I'm more reserved in my support for the NATO campaign against Gaddafi. Recall Victor Davis Hanson's essay at the start of the war, "A Middle East Policy in Shambles." Completely ad hoc, and spineless too, it's hard to get excited about this, especially since Afghanistan (and Pakistan) remains the central danger point in U.S. international affairs.

Anyway, I think my concerns are not unfamiliar among the wider conservative establishment. Michele Bachmann, in particular, seemed to impart the sense that America's a bit overextended at the moment. See, LAT, "GOP splitting over U.S. role in Libya and Afghanistan":

Republicans are facing a widening fissure over the U.S. role on the world stage as party leaders decide whether to confront President Obama this week over his policy toward Libya.

House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) and other congressional Republican leaders have said that U.S. involvement in NATO's bombing campaign, which hit the 90-day mark Sunday, violates the War Powers Act. The House could seek to cut off money for the war as it takes up the annual Pentagon spending bill this week.

Several of the party's potential presidential candidates have called for the U.S. to quit the fight in Libya and questioned the depth of U.S. involvement in Afghanistan.

Other Republicans have begun pushing back, criticizing what they see as a growing isolationist agenda within the party. The result is that Republicans, once relatively unified on foreign policy issues, now have a division that parallels the long-standing split in Democratic ranks.

The debate was on public display Sunday as two of the GOP's leading figures on defense and foreign policy, Sens. John McCain of Arizona and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, criticized Republican presidential hopefuls and congressional leaders who question the country's military intervention around the world.

"There has always been an isolationist strain in the Republican Party," McCain said on ABC's "This Week," "but now it seems to have moved more center stage.... That is not the Republican Party that has been willing to stand up for freedom for people all over the world."

Graham said on NBC's "Meet the Press" that any debate over cutting funding for the Libya war would encourage resistance by Libyan leader Moammar Kadafi. "Congress should sort of shut up," he said.

McCain and Graham also criticized former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who's leading in the polls for the party's presidential nomination, for referring to the fighting in Afghanistan as a "war for independence" that the U.S. should leave to others.

"I wish that candidate Romney and all the others would sit down" with U.S. commanders "and understand how this counter-insurgency is working and succeeding," McCain said.

Romney was one of several presidential hopefuls who, in last week's Republican candidate debate, focused criticism on U.S. military operations in Libya and Afghanistan. None took the sort of hawkish positions that McCain advocated during his presidential run in 2008.

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), for example, questioned what U.S. interest is at stake in Libya. "We were not attacked," Bachmann said. "We were not threatened with attack. There was no vital national interest."

Anthony Weiner X-Rated Scandal Update: Beltway Distraction Edition

Here's today's "Meet the Press" panel, which features a couple of minutes on Weinergate. Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed is calling for Weiner's resignation, so the party can move on, because Democrats "are doing so well on the MediCare conversation." That starts at about 1:00 minute, but the whole clip is worth a listen. WSJ's Kim Strassel's one of my favorite journalists. Not only a brilliant political observer, she's a conservative in a sea of Obama-enabling progressives.

[VIDEO PULLED]

Meanwhile, Robert Stacy McCain is all over the latest Weinergate developments, and he's got more on today's "Meet the Press." See, "VIDEO: Wasserman-Schultz Discusses Weiner Scandal on ‘Meet the Press’." Also, "Report: Weiner Sent Woman Photos of Himself Posing in Congressional Gym," and "VIDEO: ‘Tipping Point’ for Weiner?"

Half of All Americans Disapprove of Obama's Job Performance

I'm surprised it's that high, although we've got 57 percent disapproval of Obama on the economy, so he is trying.

At WaPo, "Economic anxiety threatens Obama in 2012, but in poll he edges GOP rivals" (via Memeorandum):

Deepening economic pessimism has pushed down President Obama’s approval rating to a near record low, but he holds an early advantage over prospective 2012 rivals in part because of widespread dissatisfaction with Republican candidates, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

In the survey, 47 percent approve of the job Obama is doing, down seven points since January. Half of all Americans disapprove of his job performance, with 37 percent saying they “strongly disapprove,” nearly matching the worst level of his presidency.

Driving the downward movement in Obama’s standing are renewed concerns about the economy and fresh worry about rising prices, particularly for gasoline. Despite signs of economic growth, 44 percent of Americans see the economy as getting worse, the highest percentage to say so in more than two years.

The toll on Obama is direct: 57 percent disapprove of the job the president is doing dealing with the economy, tying his highest negative rating when it comes to the issue. And the president is doing a bit worse among politically important independents.

If Obama is running into headwinds, however, his potential Republican opponents face serious problems, as well. Less than half of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they are satisfied with the field of GOP candidates.

That field is still taking shape, but the sentiment is a big falloff from four years ago, when nearly two-thirds of Republicans were satisfied with their options.

Well, it turns out Sarah Palin launched a new website yesterday, which stoked speculation that she's going to formally announce her candidacy. I hope so. She'll fire up the GOP. Game on.

IMAGE CREDIT: Serr8d's Cutting Edge.

What Trump Wants

Don't forget that I was in the house at CPAC when The Donald announced he was a candidate for the presidency. That's when he smacked down the Paulbots, which was priceless. I wouldn't have expected that he'd come on as strong as he has in the polls. Ed Morrissey has in interesting headline on that, "Rasmussen survey shows Obama can’t clear 50% even against Trump."

But see Politico, "What's Donald Trump really after?" (via Memeorandum):

More than anything else, according to those who’ve spoken to him, he doesn’t want to be seen as the butt of this particular joke.

“He gets mad that people aren’t taking him seriously,“ said a Republican who’s spoken with him.

Still, while he is “serious” from the organizational point of view and appears very likely to emerge as a formal candidate for office, he will struggle hard to be taken seriously as a potential Republican nominee. Trump may not be in on the joke — he rarely jokes about himself — but he has been a punch line as long as he’s been a public figure. He’s still more of a sideshow than anything else, most Republican insiders are convinced, and his respectable showings in largely meaningless early polls reflect little more than his widespread notoriety.

Progressives Slobber Over Obama's SOTU Address

Look, I only watched parts of it, but I'm agreeing with Krauthammer: The president "phoned it in."

Here's the full video clip: "State of the Union, 2011."

A bare majority at CNN's poll (52 percent) report a positive reaction to the address, and a third said "they had a somewhat positive response and 15 percent with a negative response."

More at Memeorandum.

I'll be reading over some of the left's reactions and will have more in an update.

State of the Union, 2011

As promised, here's the full clip:

My previous essay is here, with some commentary and hot links: "Obama State of the Union Address 2011."

Obama State of the Union Address 2011

I was in and out, driving my son to lacrosse practice, etc., so I have no big takeaway. I'll post the full White House YouTube tomorrow, with additional commentary. I'm especially interested in his "Sputnik" comments, so we'll see.

Meanwhile, at LAT, "State of the Union: Obama Calls for Unity, Yet Challenges GOP":

The president's State of the Union message focuses on bipartisanship and offers proposals sure to please conservatives. But the broad outlines of his expected reelection run are clearly visible.

The moment was tailor-made for President Obama, who rose to national fame seven years ago on a call for unifying America's blue and red states.

Standing before a divided Congress on Tuesday, with Democrats and Republicans seated side-by-side in a nod to comity, he delivered the appeal for unity many were expecting him to give.

"Governing will now be a shared responsibility between parties," he said. "We will move forward together, or not at all."

But the political reality behind his rhetoric was light-years removed from his lofty 2004 Democratic convention debut, when the then-Senate candidate from Illinois declared that "there's not a liberal America and a conservative America; there's the United States of America."

Now, a president at midterm, he's wiser and battle-scarred, and appears to have bounced back from the November election that delivered what he had described as a "shellacking."

With a much-discussed, and thus far successful, turn toward the center, he has strengthened his hand as he prepares to battle Republicans in Congress and launch his reelection campaign.

More at the link.

RELATED: From Jennifer Rubin, "Where was Obama the centrist in his State of the Union?" (via Memeorandum):

After the Giffords memorial service, this effort seemed like Obama had phoned it in.

Wince.

More coverage at Althouse and Instapundit.